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Utuntu n'utundi

Abahanga mu bya siyansi bagaragaje ko isi yerekeza ku irimbuka rya muntu

Isaha y’umunsi w’imperuka yerekana by’urugero uburyo isi iri hafi y’umunsi w’irimbuka rya muntu kubera ingufu kurimbuzi igeze kuri saa sita z’ijoro zibura amasegonda 90.

Urushinge rw’iyi saha ikoreshwa n’abahanga muri siyanse barwegereza hafi ya saa sita z’ijoro aho igice cyayo kinini kiba cyabaye umutuku iyo batanga ubutumwa n’impamvu isi yegereye uwo munsi uzwi nka “Armageddon”.

Ibyago bitejwe no gusiganwa gukora intwaro kirimbuzi, intambara muri Ukraine, n’akaga gatezwa n’ihindagurika ry’ikirere nizo mpamvu ubu batanga.

Buri mwaka inshinge z’iyi saha zishyirwa ku gihe runaka n’ikigo cyigenga kitwa Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, kivuga ko gitewe impungenge n’ingaruka za siyanse n’iterambere ry’ikoranabuhanga ku kiremwamuntu.

Kuva mu 2007, kiriya kigo cyatangiye kwiga ingaruka n’ibyago by’ikoranabuhanga rishya rizwi nka Artificial Intelligence (AI) n’ihindagurika ry’ikirere, hamwe n’igiteje akaga kuruta ibindi – intambara kirimbuzi.

Mu itangazo ryabo rya 2024 ryo kuwa kabiri, Bulletin yavuze ko Ubushinwa, Uburusiya na Amerika byose birimo gushyira imari nini cyane mu “kwagura no kuvugurura intwaro zabyo kirimbuzi” – ivuga ko “ubu kurusha ikindi gihe cyose ari bwo biteje akaga k’intambara kirimbuzi ku ikosa cyangwa kubara nabi”.

Intambara muri Ukraine nayo iki kigo kivuga ko “ihora iteye impungenge zo gutangiza intambara kirimbuzi”.

Iki kigo kivuga kandi ko ihindagurika ry’ikirere n’ibyago bishobora kuva ku “ikoreshwa nabi” ry’ikoranabuhanga mu guhanga ibinyabuzima n’ibikoresho bimwe bya Artificial Intelligence (AI) ari impamvu ziteje akaga zo guhagarika iyi saha aho yihagaritse ubu.

Doomsday Clock nk’uko iyi saha yitwa, yashyizweho mu 1947 na Robert Oppenheimer hamwe n’abahanga muri siyanse bagenzi be bo muri Amerika bakoze za bombe atomique.

Hari hashize imyaka ibiri babonye amahano izi bombe nyuma y’intambara y’isi, ku mijyi ibiri ya Hiroshima na Nagasaki y’Ubuyapani. Bashakaga kuburira isi no gushyira igitutu ku bategetsi b’isi ngo ntibazongere na rimwe gukoresha izi ntwaro kirimbuzi.

Iyo kiriya kigo Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists kibona impamvu zifatika isi igeramiwe n’umunsi w’imperuka uvuye ku ngufu kirimbuzi gihagarika iriya saha iminota runaka hafi ya saa sita z’ijoro bitewe n’urugero rw’ibyago by’uwo munsi ruhari.

Inshinge z’iyi saha zimaze kwimurwa inshuro 25. Mu 1947, bagejeje uru rushinge ku minota irindwi ibura kuri saa sita z’ijoro. Ubwo intambara y’ubutira yari irangiye, mu 1991, iyi saha yasubijwe inyuma ishyirwa ku minota 17 ibura saa sita z’ijoro.

Rachel Bronson ukuriye ya Bulletin yabwiye BBC ko “buri gihugu cyose cy’igihangange, kirimo gushora imari nini mu ntwaro zacyo kirimbuzi nkaho izi ntwaro zikoreshwa igihe kirekire cyane. Iki ni igihe giteye ubwoba cyane…Abategetsi ntabwo bakigengesera.”

Pavel Podvig, Umurusiya w’inzobere mu ntwaro kirimbuzi umaze imyaka myinshi ari mu bashyira ku gihe ‘Doomsday Clock’, avuga ko yatunguwe ubwo Perezida Putin nyuma yo gutera Ukraine yashyiraga intwaro kirimbuzi z’igihugu cye ku rwego rwo kuba ziteguye kuraswa.

Abazi akabi k’izi ntwaro ku isi bagize ubwoba nyuma y’iki gikorwa cya Putin ariko bisa n’aho yabikoze nkana.

Isaha y'imperuka

Podvig ati: “Iki nicyo neza neza izi ntwaro zibereyeho kuguha uburenganzira bwo gukora icyo ushaka. Perezida w’Uburusiya yari abizi ko gukora ibyo bizabuza Uburengerazuba kwinjira muri Ukraine kuyifasha kandi bisa n’aho ari ko byagenze ni uko gukangisha izi ntwaro bigenda.”

Nubwo hari amasezerano amaze imyaka za mirongo ategeka kugabanya intwaro kirimbuzi ubu haracyariho izigera ku 13,000 ku isi, 90% byazo zifitwe na Amerika n’Uburusiya. Ibindi bihugu bitandatu nabyo bizifite ni: Ubushinwa, Ubwongereza, Ubufaransa,Ubuhinde, Pakistan na Korea ya Ruguru.

Bikekwa cyane ko Israel nayo ifite bene izi ntwaro, ariko ntibiremezwa. Intwaro kirimbuzi nyinshi zigezweho zikubye kenshi ubukana zimwe isi izi zakoze ibara i Hiroshima na Nagasaki.

Feargal Dalton, wahoze ari umusirikare mukuru mu ngabo zirwanira mu mazi z’Ubwongereza ku bwato bugendera munsi y’inyanja buzwi nka HMS Victorious, ni umwe mu bantu bacye barashe misile izwi nka Trident: igeragezwa rya misile ifite umutwe w’igisasu kirimbuzi.

Dalton agira ati: “Buri gihe haba hari [submarine] imwe ahantu runaka, iba yiteguye kurasa mu minota 15 ihawe amabwiriza. Ubu tuvugana hari igisasu kirimbuzi ahantu runaka giteguwe. Ibya Vladimir Putin isi irabizi ko biri aha hanze byiteguye, natwe twabikoresha bibaye ngombwa.”

Kuva bombe atomic yacurwa habayeho abamagana bene izi ntwaro. Mu myaka ya 1980 itsinda ry’abagore ryiswe Greenham Common ryaharaniye ko misile kirimbuzi za Amerika zivanwa ku butaka bw’Ubwongereza iya nyuma yahavanywe mu 2008.

Gusa ubu igisirikare cya Amerika n’icy’Ubwongereza biri mu bikorwa byo kugarura izindi ntwaro kirimbuzi mu Bwongereza ibirimo kwamaganwa n’impirimbanyi.

Indege za Amerika z’intambara zifite ubushobozi bwo kugeza izo ntwaro mu Bwongereza zageze ku kigo kimwe cya gisirikare cyaho mu 2021 ndetse ubu hari imigambi y’igisirikare cya Amerika kirwanira mu kirere yo kubaka aho abasirikare barara bazakora ku mugambi w’intwaro kirimbuzi muri icyo kigo cyo mu Bwongereza.

Alan Wright impirimbanyi yamagana ibi, ati: “Ubwongereza nta kintu buzakora muri icyo kigo, kigenzurwa byuzuye na Amerika. Niba Trump ari we utowe maze agakanda button [yo kurekura ibisasu kirimbuzi] kuko afite iruta iya Putin  icyo gihe nitwe tuzibasirwa.”

Intwaro kirimbuzi

Gusa Trump mbere yavuze ko atowe nka perezida yarangiza intambara muri Ukraine mu masaha 24 gusa, nubwo atasobanuye uko yabikora. Inzobere zimwe zivuga ko ubufasha Amerika iha Ukraine bwahita bugabanuka cyangwa bugahagarara.

Mu myaka 10 ishize, ubwoba bw’intambara kirimbuzi bwongerewe kandi na Kim Jong-Un ukuriye Korea ya Ruguru, igihugu giheruka kwinjira mu bitunze bene izi ntwaro. Yigambye kenshi kugerageza misile kirimbuzi zishobora kugera muri Amerika.

Sig Hecker wahoze ari mu bagize Bulletin of Atomic Scientists kandi wasuye aho Korea ya Ruguru itegurira ingufu kirimbuzi inshuro zirindwi, agereranya ko iki gihugu ubu gifite ibisasu kirimbuzi hagati ya 50 na 60.

Ati: “Intwaro kirimbuzi, iterabwoba kirimbuzi, kwiyongera kw’intwaro kirimbuzi – byose birimo kujya mu cyerekezo kibi.”

@BBC

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